India’s September Trade Numbers, Explained: Exports Up 23%, Gold Imports Down 81%, and the Fine Print

On‍‍‍ Thursday the government came out with the trade data for India for the month of September. The main thing that the report says is a positive one: merchandise exports shot up by a massive 23% to $44.4 billion. However, it’s not uncommon for one figure to be used to hide what the whole picture really is, and the case is much the same here. Along with the higher export figure, imports went up as well, gold imports hit rock bottom, and wholesale inflation came to a multi-year high level. Let me give you the bottom line of this data so that you don’t go by it on the basis of a few figures alone. ‍‍‍

The headline numbers

According to the Commerce Ministry’s data, as reported by several outlets:

• Exports: $44.4 billion in September, up 23% from $36.08 billion a year earlier
• Imports: $74.61 billion, up 8% from $69.08 billion
• Trade deficit (goods): $30.21 billion, down from about $33 billion in September 2025, but wider than August’s $26.9 billion

So the gap between what India sold abroad and what it bought narrowed compared with last year, but it grew compared with the previous month. Both things are true at once, which is why checking the comparison period matters.

Forbes India noted this was the sixth straight month of double-digit export growth. It also noted that growth slowed from August’s 26.1%, so the pace cooled a little even as it stayed strong.

What drove exports?

Shipments of electronics, engineering goods and petroleum products led the increase, with chemicals and agricultural products also contributing, according to the ministry data as reported. For April to September, exports rose 18.51% to $259.89 billion.

A reasonable caution on the petroleum part. With Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel in recent weeks, some of the rise in petroleum product exports is likely to reflect higher prices rather than a larger volume shipped. That’s our reading, not something the release itself states, but it’s worth keeping in mind when comparing this year’s figures with last year’s.

The import side: why the deficit is still large

Over the same six months, imports climbed 16.31% to $437.53 billion. That means the goods trade deficit for April to September stands at roughly $177.6 billion. Exports are growing faster than imports, which is a positive sign, but the absolute gap is huge because India imports far more than it exports in goods.

The gap is partly offset by services, which have long been India’s trade-balance cushion. Forbes India’s coverage notes that services exports are higher than a year ago too, which is why the overall picture is less lopsided than the goods deficit alone suggests.

The gold surprise

One detail stands out: Forbes India reported that gold imports plunged 81% in September. That fits a story we covered this week. Gold in rupees is expensive because the rupee has weakened, and festive-season buyers have been cautious about prices even before Dhanteras. Since gold is one of India’s biggest import items, a drop of that size helps narrow the monthly deficit on its own. It’s worth separating that effect from genuine improvement in trade competitiveness. A smaller gold bill is helpful for the numbers, but it isn’t the same thing as export success.

Prices are running hot

In‍‍‍ addition to the trade data, government released wholesale price data also. There was a big jump in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to 11.39% in September, up from 9.92% in August, and the reports said it was the highest level in years. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures retail inflation was stated at ‍‍‍5.54%.

Wholesale inflation measures what businesses pay and charge each other, so it often foreshadows retail pressures. Put this next to the RBI’s decision on October 7 to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points, and the central bank’s concerns about inflation make more sense. Energy prices sit at the centre of the story again.

What this means for trade policy?

There are a few threads running through the trade conversation right now, and each needs a careful read.

The US relationship. In February, a framework cut the US tariff on most Indian goods to 18% from 50%, which we explained earlier. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said the first tranche of a fuller trade deal would be finalised soon. A US Secretary of State visit to India, reported for October 17 to 22, is expected to focus on energy cooperation and investment. Reports also say India’s goods exports to the US grew about 11% between April and September, though it’s best to treat that as indicative until the ministry publishes the details.

Other agreements. The Commerce Secretary said an India–New Zealand free trade agreement takes effect on October 20, and that the pact with the UK is already in force. Trade deals take time to show up in the data, so don’t expect an immediate leap from them.

Diversification. The broader aim behind all these agreements is to reduce India’s dependence on any single market, which matters more when tariffs and geopolitics keep shifting.

How to read all this without overreacting?

Three points are worth taking away.

1. Strong exports are real, but cooling slightly. Double-digit growth for six months is a good run, though the pace dipped from August.
2. The narrower deficit has helpers. Weaker gold imports flatter the number, and oil prices can inflate both export and import values.
3. Inflation is the counterweight. A WPI reading above 11% means input costs are rising sharply, which can squeeze margins for exporters and eventually reach consumers.

No single month proves a trend. The more useful signal will be whether export growth holds up in October and November, whether the deficit stays in the $27 billion to $30 billion range, and whether the inflation numbers ease if oil prices cool.

Figures are based on government data and published reports as of October 16, 2026, and may be revised. This article is for general information and isn’t investment advice.